Mortgage News

As 2024 has progressed, economic data–especially inflation data–have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates are driven by multiple factors.  At present, inflation is chief among those, followed by the economy.  […]

Decent Recovery After Friday’s PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday’s PCE Numbers Thursday’s quarterly PCE numbers were much higher than expected.  That meant an increased risk that Friday’s monthly numbers would follow suit.  While today’s PCE was higher than […]

WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit “mathy” and esoteric.  The takeaway is that there’s an actual way to reconcile today’s 0.3 vs 0.3 monthly core PCE result against yesterday’s 3.7 vs 3.4 annual result.  Yesterday’s GDP data included the Core PCE Price […]

There seems to be a bit of a baby boom going on out there. Prospective home buyers who need a place for a growing family quickly find out that residential lending isn’t without its share of tears. Next time you’re dealing with an upset borrower or loan officer, here’s something you can try. […]

Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data Today’s big surprise was the PCE price index component of Q1 GDP.  GDP itself was weaker than expected, but even that was explained away by components not related to private domestic consumption.  […]

Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations.  One of the Fed’s favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter. Oddly enough, the quarterly comes […]

I travel a little bit, so it was with great interest that I read, “The Department of Transportation… will soon require airlines to quickly refund passengers if they cancel, delay, or make significant changes to flights.” “A book hit my head, and I have only my shelf to blame.” Odd things […]

It’s a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement.  At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far from forecast.  But the devil […]

Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combination of anxiety over potential sales of US Treasuries in Japan and European economic data.  The domestic session brought actual selling of US […]

The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday’s levels despite bond market movement that suggested a bigger spike.  In a vast majority of cases, if the bond market is in weaker territory compared to the previous day, rates will be […]