Mortgage News

Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global nuclear war overnight, but even at the height of that trade, the gains weren’t too big for Treasuries/MBS.  Starting at 9am ET, bonds began giving […]

Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they’ll be happy to explain what “always” happens in financial markets when there’s breaking news regarding large scale geopolitical risk.  It would be a surprise if you didn’t hear a phrase like “flight to safety,” the most common shorthand […]

The most common interval for scheduled economic data is “monthly.”  That means that things like inflation, sentiment, job counts, unemployment, retail sales, and many other economic metrics are updated and released every month, even when nothing very interesting is happening. On that note, there […]

“What do giraffes and zoning regulations have in common? They both don’t exist in Texas.” I am not heading there for a while, but instead head to St. Louis this morning for the MBA of St. Louis event. I received this note from a veteran broker. “Someone please remind government officials, […]

Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction.  When it comes to such matters, we must ask “who thought it seemed significant?”  Quite a few people, most likely, but not as many bond traders. One […]

Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market.  Economic data was limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index (builder confidence)–a report that hasn’t been a market mover since the financial crisis.  And none […]

The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate was just a hair over 7% on Friday afternoon and the same is true at the start of the new week.  Rates are based on bonds, but while bonds move constantly throughout the day, mortgage lenders only adjust rates once per day unless there’s excessive […]

Historically low interest rates may not have guaranteed historically high levels of housing activity, but exceptionally high rates have definitely muted activity in a measurable way.  We’ve cataloged this incessantly when it comes to refinance activity, but there’s a correlation with home sales as […]

“I didn’t make it to the gym again today. That makes five years in a row.” I did, however, make it to the aerodrome over the weekend, which involved travel (not on Spirit) from Ohio to Nevada, and also a look in the mailbag. “Rob, are you hearing something about some states contemplating […]

While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump’s cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that economic data continues coming in hotter than expected.  Even when it comes to the Fed, monetary policy has been and will continue to be dictated by […]